Statistical Milestones in The Final Days of The 2024 Presidential Election
This is a follow up to the 2020 post about the early voting trends. Based on 2020 early voting data, I could accurately predict that Trump was retaining FL and NC, while Biden was retaining NV and flipping AZ. I was 4/4 while opinion polls were 2/4. So, what is happening in 2024?
First update — Oct. 21st
These are very early days with more data coming in every day.
AZ — Moving towards Trump by 4%. Trump flipping state as Biden won AZ by 0.3%
FL — Moving towards Trump by 1%. Trump retaining state as Trump won FL by 3.4%
GA — Moving towards Trump by 3%. Trump flipping state as Biden won GA by 0.2%
NC — Moving towards Trump by 3%. Trump retaining state as he won NC by 1.3%
NV — Moving towards Trump by 1%. Kamala retaining state as Biden won NV by 2.4%
Second update — Oct. 24th
These are early days with more data coming in every day. However, with every update, the race is moving towards Trump and the data can no longer be categorized as early days. NC and GA have hit 40% of likely turnout. FL, AZ, and NV are at 25% of the likely turnout.
AZ — Moving towards Trump by 3% in 2024. Trump flipping state as Biden won AZ in 2020 by 0.3%
FL — Moving towards Trump by 2%. Trump now winning the state by more than 5%
GA — Moving towards Trump by 3%. Trump flipping state as Biden won GA by 0.2%
NC — Moving towards Trump by 3%. Trump retaining state as he won NC by 1.3%
NV — Moving towards Trump by 2%. Biden won NV by 2.4% and now this is a true tossup
At this time, the party id and racial profile of the voters are looking like it was in 2016. In 2016, GA, AZ, and NC were comfortable Trump wins and that is what the data is pointing to in 2024.
We have no early voting data to make a judgment call on PA, MI, and WI. Kamala needs to win all 3 of them. For Trump, any one of those 3 states would be the tipping state. If only WI flips, then it will be a 269–269 tie but the GOP has the tiebreaker.
From Trump’s POV — the race is moving 2–3% towards Trump, the margin in WI, MI, and PA was less than that. So, Trump is winning.
From Kamala’s POV — the race is similar to 2016, so PA, MI, and WI are likely going to be tough wins for Trump. Kamala just needs to retain the blue wall
Overall in my opinion, Trump has a 70% chance of winning the election.
Final update — Nov. 1st
Tuesday — Nov 5th timeline — all times USA ET
FL — We will know about FL by 8 pm. I expect Trump to win FL by 7–10%. Everyday the margin is improving in favor of Trump. 2024 Early vote turnout has already exceeded 2016 early vote and is now at 81% of 2020 early vote and 61% of the 2020 final vote.
NC — we will know by 10 PM — I expect Trump to win NC by 2–4%. The movement towards Trump peaked on 10/26. Since then, it has reversed a bit to 10/23 levels. 2024 Early vote turnout has already exceeded 2016 early vote and is now at 90% of 2020 early vote and 70% of the 2020 final vote.
GA — We should know GA by 10 pm as I expect Trump to win by 2–3%. If GA remains too close to call, Trump is in trouble. The movement towards Trump peaked on 10/26. Since then, it has reversed a bit to 10/22 levels. 2024 Early vote is now at 92% of 2020 early vote and 74% of the 2020 final vote.
NV/ AZ — I expect their announcements by 1 AM. NV can go to either candidate and that won’t change the final outcome. I expect AZ to go to Trump by 2–4%. Everyday the margin is improving in favor of Trump. 2024 Early vote is now at 95% of 2020 early vote and 64% of the 2020 final vote.
At this stage, it will be very clear that Trump needs to win 1 out of the 3 states — WI, MI, and PA. Kamala would need to win all 3 of them. All 3 states went to Trump in 2016, and all 3 states went to Biden in 2020. So, there is a pattern that they all go in one direction. I have no 2024 data for these 3 states. Since Trump needs to win only 1 of them, I am giving Trump a 70% chance to be the President.
2 AM — WI and MI will come out. If Trump wins one of them, we have a new President-Elect. If Kamala wins them, then we all need to wait for PA to announce and that will take a few days. At this point, with MI and WI wins, Kamala would be 75% favored to be the President-Elect
My biggest hope is everything goes smoothly
https://sawrikar.medium.com/presidential-election-musings-by-nachi-sawrikar-c72a94d3bb4a
